Gambler’s Fallacy | What You Need To Know

Gambler’s fallacy is an erroneous belief. According to it, if an event has occurred in the past in a row, it will not take place in the next turn.

When it comes to gambling, punters have gut feelings, strategies, and some beliefs to follow and Gambler’s fallacy is one of them. If you haven’t heard about it and wondering what it means in the context of online gambling, this blog is the right bet to make. 

What is the Meaning of Gambler’s Fallacy

Gambler’s fallacy is an erroneous belief. According to it, if an event has occurred in the past in a row, it will not take place in the next turn. It’s a very common cognitive bias, applicable in many walks of human life.

In the context of online gambling, it involves making punters believe that past outcomes of any online game will have a great influence on future outcomes/events. For instance, if you’re engaged in a game of Live Roulette and the ball has fallen on 5 of Red in past rounds or past games, Gambler’s Fallacy will make you believe that it will not land on the same number in the future. 

The first publisher reference of Gambler’s Fallacy is found in 1821; in an essay by polymath Marquis de Laplace. In his work, Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, Laplace mentioned that men yearning for sons believed that every boy’s birth would boost the probability of the next child born being a girl. 

Later in 1913, a casino Monte Carlo also witnessed the large-scale adoption of Gambler’s Fallacy. One fine day, the ball kept on landing on the black spot multiple times in a row in a single game of Roulette.  Many players thought that the ball would end up at a red spot as it couldn’t be in black space for so many subsequent spins.  They placed a bet accordingly. However, the ball landed on a black spot in the next spin and many lost their money. 

There is another version of it; inverse Gambler’s Fallacy. In this belief, players tend to maintain the previous actions, thinking that a game of chance prefer certain outcomes.

They all become prey to Gambler’s Fallacy where their false belief stops them from making critical thinking. Some other common Gambler’s Fallacy examples are stated below for you. 

  • Assuming that a coin will land on ‘Head’ after a series of ‘Tales’.
  • Considering that you will win a game if you play it every Monday, after achieving success in the past few games, played on Monday. 

Why Gambler’s Fallacy Takes Place 

Several reasons make people have false beliefs. For instance: 

  • We tend to find logic or strategy in any random event. A coin flip, a dice roll, or a card drawn; all these events are driven by chance and don’t take place because of a pattern. Yet, many people try to find logic and patterns in these events and they end up following Gambler’s fallacy. 
  • Many of us believe that chance is self-corrective and try to maintain fairness. So, they started to believe that if a dice is showing 5 in many consecutive rolls, it will automatically correct it and give another number in the next event. However, it doesn’t make sense. 

Should you Rely on Gambler’s Fallacy? 

Gambling is a game of chance. Whether you’re playing a card game like Poker or a spinning reel on the slot, each game is a game of chance with no assurance of winning. We agree that a few strategies in games like Blackjack and Baccarat can help you gain an edge. But, nothing assures a win. 

If you bank upon Gambler’s fallacy a lot, you will end up making poor decisions while sideline logic. This is why gambling experts, including us, recommend every punter out there not to follow the lead of Gambler’s fallacy. 

If you don’t want to end-up using Gambler’s Fallacy, knowing or unknowingly, these tips will help you avoid it.

  • Understand that each game is a game of chance and outcomes are not influenced by anyone. All the leading casinos like Crickex, JeetWin, and Parimatch use quality RNGs that generate unbiased outcomes. 
  • More than on your gut feeling or false belief, you should take the help of independent research in any game of chance. You should learn that random events have no memory and in no event the outcomes could remain the same. 
  • Give logics and probability a more preference over false believe.

How Will The Metaverse Gaming Impact Online Gambling?

Wrapping Up 

Gambling is a game of luck and has no scope for any type of cognitive bias, including Gambler’s Fallacy. So, if you want to bag big wins, it’s important to overlook it and play for real money wisely. 

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